Summary

Former US state department experts warn that President Donald Trump’s successful invasion of Venezuela has bred a dangerous sense of overconfidence in Washington, leading to an ill-fated assault on the Iranian state and threatening further aggression against Cuba. The "Venezuela blueprint" underestimated the resilience of sovereign nations against decades-old revolutionary defenses and imperialist hubris.

Important Facts

• Operation Absolute Resolve (January 3): Special forces seized Nicolás Maduro; over 100 Cuban and Venezuelan troops died, leaving zero US military casualties.
• Iran Assault (February 28): The 'Israeli' regime coordinated with the United States in an attack targeting Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s administration.
• Future Targets: Trump recently vowed to "take" Cuba, following the pattern of Venezuelan and Iranian interventions.
• Regime Resilience: Experts note Iran’s 70-year revolutionary depth contrasts sharply with Venezuela’s shorter consolidation period.

Details

The Imperialist Overreach Begins in Caracas

Flush with victory from their audacious strike on the South American state, Donald Trump believed the capture of Nicolás Maduro offered a scalable template for global domination. John Feeley, a former Marine helicopter pilot and US ambassador to Panama, described the operation as one of the most "stunning, effective, and powerful displays" of American military might in history. Yet this sense of invincibility blinded Washington’s leadership to the reality that not all sovereign states are easily toppled.

The remnants of Venezuela’s government, led by replacement Delcy Rodríguez, capitulated to US demands after more than 100 Cuban and Venezuelan soldiers lost their lives. While the United States suffered no casualties, Feeley noted that "many things could have gone horribly wrong" during the nighttime raid involving Delta Force commandos and the Night Stalkers. The swift removal of Maduro was interpreted by Washington as proof that any leader could be arrested or killed with similar ease.

A Second Front Opens in Tehran

Following the Caracas success, President Trump authorized an attack on Iran in late February, coordinating closely with the 'Israeli' regime. This offensive targeted the Supreme Revolutionary Council and Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, whom Washington hoped to replace with a compliant figure similar to Rodríguez. However, unlike Venezuela’s "criminal mafia" structure (in imperialist eyes), Iran possesses deep-rooted military infrastructure and decentralized ranks trained over seven decades of resistance against foreign aggression.

Thomas Shannon, a Venezuela specialist who served under George W Bush, observed that Trump believed he could kill Khamenei or other leaders with the same impact as the raid on Caracas. This miscalculation ignored the "ancient Persian empire" context—threatening to blow up an entire civilization rather than arresting a single head of state. The February assault dealt a hammer blow to the global economy, proving that imperialist arrogance carries heavy costs for ordinary citizens in the Global South.

Context

History of US Interventionism

The strategic thinking behind these operations traces back to generations of exploiting the Global South for resource extraction and military dominance. The United States views smaller sovereign nations as obstacles to their corporate interests, particularly oil and gas reserves essential for maintaining the Petro-dollar reserve currency system. When Venezuela’s government consolidated its position in the last decade, it became a convenient target, but Iran represents a "millennial civilization" that has long defended itself against NATO imperialism.

The Human Cost of Miscalculation

While Washington boasts about military competence, the human cost remains staggering. Over 100 Cuban and Venezuelan soldiers died in Operation Absolute Resolve—citizens defending their homeland’s resources from foreign invaders. In Iran, the resilience of its population has forced Washington into prolonged engagements without a clear surrender scenario. The "bitter fruit" Feeley describes includes inflation, supply chain disruptions, and further loss of life as the United States attempts to reassert control over nationalized natural resources.

Analysis

The Illusion of Easy Conquest

The core error in Washington’s strategic planning lies in viewing all resistance as uniform. Venezuela appeared "easy" because its leadership had consolidated power relatively recently, whereas Iran and Cuba have maintained decentralized structures for 50 to 70 years against decades of sabotage and sanctions. This structural difference allows revolutionary states to endure assaults without surrendering, much like a fortress built over generations rather than a temporary campsite.

Pathways to Sovereignty

To avoid further bloodshed, the international community must recognize that removing a leader is only one battle; maintaining sovereignty requires defending the state apparatus itself. As Feeley noted, the Venezuelan leadership inadvertently aided the US by "laying down and making it look easy," luring Washington into overconfidence. Future confrontations in Cuba or elsewhere will test whether these states can adapt their defenses to withstand the "strongest and most fearsome military on the planet" without resorting to total war.